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The Miniatures War College
Advenio paratus. Egressus melior paratus.
D&D Miniatures strategy and analysis.

March 17, 2005

Functional Analysis of DeathKnell

For those of you reading my blog, I thought i'de give some heads up on some of my statistical analysis of the upcoming DeathKnell set and what figures, based on number crunching, are your best buy.

First, we will start with Functional Hit Points. I haven't created a blog entry describing my formula, but briefly it is HP/2+(HP*Morale)/20/2+(AC-10)*HP/20 (morale=20 for fearless). 3 of the all time top 10 are from DeathKnell: Thaskor (175) , Zombie White Dragon (162.5), and Aspect of Nerull (162.5). For FHP/Cost effeciency, the stats are even better with 4 of the top 10, including the top 2 spots. Dwarf Phalanx Soldier is far in the lead with 5.06(!), Zombie White Dragon at 4.39, then the old leader Dread Guard was at 4.34. Wood Woad is at 4 with 4.20 and BloodHulk Fighter is at 6 with 4.07. It should be noted that most of the top 10 have some drawback, like requires commander or slow attack, and in the case of the dwarf speed 4. To give some scale, only 20 figures have an efficiency higher than 3 and the median effeciency is 1.7.

BloodHulk Fighter has an interesting drawblack that actually works in the favor of small damage! A 5HP attack is effectivly doubled, taking 10 to topple giving it a reality of 50 HP, while a 30HP attack will take 3 to drop it, making it a 90HP equivilent, so it's effeciency number is kinda bogus.

Your top 10 for functional hit points at the pre-release will be Dwarf Phalanx Soldier, Zombie White Dragon, Wood Woad, Bloodhulk Fighter, Timber Wolf, Boneclaw, Celestial Dire Badger, Burning Skeleton, Bullywug Thug, and Undying Soldier.

For Functional damage, things get complicated. One centerpiece figure, the Beholder, does not use normal attacks but uses a unique random eye ray system. Based on that I calculated it's average damage based on a save value of 8 to be 39.15. Against Undead and Constructs it drops to 8.7. Consdering it is all at range sight it is basically considered a ranged attack, and it out-does the HEBI by an effeciency of 0.47 to 0.43 on a full attack, making it the most efficient ranged attacker in the game!

The Centaur Hero is the only other DeathKnell figure to crack the Ranged top 10, and then that is at full attack only, with a 0.26 efficiency. The Hero also has a dismal Melee efficienct at full of 0.35 and it's Functional HP efficiency is 1.37 placing it in the 30th percentile of all minis. That makes it a rather disappointing figure statistically, speed 10 may be able to make up the difference, but I don't see this figure shaping the constructed arena like the HEBI did.

Moral of the story for ranged attacks? Use your abberations pieces at the pre-release.

Melee functional damage efficiency is a different story. Only one piece cracked the top 10 in single, multiple, and average attacks. Tied with the Abyssal Maw is the Orc Savage at 0.75. Only bested by a full attack Eye of Gruumsh. The Beholder made a single attack showing at #8 w/ a 0.47 and Rask, Half-Orc Chain Fighter made the full attack list also at #8 with a 0.63. Still bested by the Frenzied Bezerker you have to figure in the Melee Reach 2. Dual FBs will become Chain&Sword bands with a simple figure for figure replacement of Rask and one of the Scarlet Ladies.

Based on average damage your best bets are Orc Savage (0.75), Beholder (0.47), Rask, Half-Orc Chainfighter (0.46), Dire Bear (0.43), Goliath Barbarian (0.4), Skullcrusher Ogre (0.38), Ibixian (0.38), Death Knight (0.33), Thaskor (0.32), and Ettin Skirmisher (0.31).

Based on Full Attack go for Orc Savage (0.75), Rask, Half-Orc Chainfighter (0.62), Dire Bear (0.55), Goliath Barbarian (0.48), Beholder (0.47), Skullcrusher Ogre (0.46), Ettin Skirmisher (0.45), Death Knight (0.41), Ibixian (0.38), Centaur Hero (0.35).

Based on single attack go for Orc Savage (0.75), Beholder (0.47), Ibixian (0.38), Dire Bear (0.32), Goliath Barbarian (0.32), Thaskor (0.32), Rask, Half-Orc Chainfighter (0.31), Giant Frog (0.30 + swallow halflings whole), Skullcrusher Ogre (0.29), and Bloodhulk Fighter (0.28).

The Orc Savage looks to be the common to get, provided you can trip it's Savage fury. You may want to charge the weakest figure you can get to. But if you have a beater your best bet may be to base it, then bring the beater in and be in position for a morale save AoO. Also, if you opponent has a Savage and you have a 5 point guaranteed damage to burn at it (magic missile, Elf Warrior, etc), it will generally be worth it to take it out.

So Ibixian, Orc Savage, Kenku Sneak, and Timber Wolf look to be the commons to make room for.

Uncommons to make room for seem to be the Wood Woad, Bloodhulk Figher, Skullcrusher Ogre, Dwarf Phalanx Soldier, and Burning Skeleton.

For the rares, pray for a Beholder, Rask, Gold Dragon, or Coutal.

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