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The Miniatures War College
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D&D Miniatures strategy and analysis.

June 14, 2005

Figureing out the Golaith Barbarian: How Good is the Re-Rolled Attack?

The Goliath Barbarian, with it's reroll attack ability, poses a rather interesting number crunching problem when analyzing the statistics of a warband, just how good is it's ability? Clearly the piece is worth more than the +10/+5 (20) that is listed on the card, but just how much more? This is also useful to star wars players, since you can spend a force point to re-roll an attack roll you missed on.

To answer this question, I am going to resort to what amounts to applied elementary probability and statistics, and if it makes your head hurt just skip down to the chart. I call it elementary because I don't do this stuff for a living and it makes sense to me, therefore it can't be all that difficult. What I did was convert the "roll needed" to hit to a probability of hitting, at a simple 0.05 probability per side that can hit. Then I squared that probability to get the odds that I will miss twice. Once on the normal attack and once on the re-roll. The rest of the probability, split basically 50/50 is the odds I hit on the normal roll or the re roll. But I just calculated those together. Then I figured what an equivalent "hit number" would be for those odds, the difference between the two is the benefit from using the re-roll. Here is a chart summarizing the numbers.

Roll
Needed
2x Miss
Odds
Effective
Roll Needed
Net
Bonus
200.09819.050.95
190.19017.201.80
180.27815.452.55
170.36013.803.20
160.43812.253.75
150.51010.804.20
140.5789.454.55
130.6408.204.80
120.6987.054.95
110.7506.005.00
100.7985.054.95
90.8404.204.80
80.8783.454.55
70.9102.804.20
60.9382.253.75
50.9601.803.20
40.9781.452.55
30.9901.201.80
20.9981.050.95


Armed with this information we have our answer, about +3/+4 on most attacks. Against a Large Silver dragon it's like having a +14/+5 attack (+13/+5 if buffed). Against an Orc Champion it's +10/+10 (+13 on a single attack), against an Ogre Ravager it's +10/+10 or +14 on a single attack. Against a Frenzied Bezerker it's +10/+8, not so special there. Between the primary and secondary attacks it is most effective against ACs between 15 and 23, i.e. most of the beaters!

Here is a quick comparison chart for a Goliath re-rolling an attack against a particular AC.

Primary

Secondary
30+11

25+6
29+12

24+7
28+13

23+8
27+13

22+8
26+14

21+9
25+14

20+9
24+15

19+10
23+15

18+10
22+15

17+10
21+15

16+10
20+15

15+10
19+15

14+10
18+15

13+10
17+14

12+9
16+14

11+9
15+13

10+8
14+13

9+8
13+12

8+7
12+11

7+6

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