The Miniatures War College
Advenio paratus. Egressus melior paratus.
D&D Miniatures strategy and analysis.

October 27, 2005

Podcast 3 - Underdark Spoilers Statistical Review

Podcast 3 has been releasd: [MP3]. I pontificate on the statistical findings from the Underdark spoiners. Go Uncommon Dwarves!

October 25, 2005

Underdark Spoilers (no, for real this time!)

Spoilers are surfacing again on the Wizards of the Coast message boards and the MaxMinis Message Boards. As of this writing I count 48 of 60 revealed, with mostly rares remaining. Hence, I will not be posting my podcast this week (it isn't done anyway).

Thursday I will do the statistical run-down of whatever spoilers we have at that point. No Eyes of Gruumnsh yet, but it isn't a set full of ophidians either.

Next Tuesday I will be doing the War College Graduation/Dean's List podcast , and then in three weeks I will post the podcast I was anticipating to post today. The Graduation podcast will require a whole lot less post production than the Interview podcast I was going to post today, in three weeks you will see what I mean.

October 18, 2005


So, when do you think we'll get the Underdark spoilers?

Sorry, I saw this. Even though it had a DC of 13 I managed to roll a 1.

Between an anniversary trip to Santa Fe, the impending arrival of the afformentioned spoilers, and an extra special interview I have lined up if the spoilers don't arrive by next tuesday, I have nothing to post this week.

October 11, 2005

Podcast 2: Fair Woodland Creatures of the Underdark

Episode 2 of the Miniatures War College is up. This podcast changes the name for hopefully the last time. This episode covers Underdark Previews #5 and #6 and the October Previews. The second segment discusses tools for calculating Line of Sight.

Please note that all of the links to this weblog and podcast have changed to /warcollege/ (college as in a place of learning) from /warcollage/ (collage as in an assembly of various fragments). Auto-redirects should be in place to update most feed reders, but some may need to be changed by hand. Also the feedburner link has changed as well.

My Odeo Channel (odeo/70d30d957e6009a1)

October 2, 2005

Curses! Numbers Again!

Another card to leak out of GenCon 2005 was Elminster of Shadowdale. Being the first of the new Epic figures there are two versions of the card. The most interesting spell IMHO is the 7th Level Spell Mystra's Curse (sight; roll twice for each of target creature's rolls and take the lower result, DC 19). This is another effect which is like Conceal where the number you need to roll determines the effectiveness of the effect. One simple notion is to think of the Curse effect as "do it, then do it again." The problem with that notion is that the probability of not rolling a 1 twice in a row is far different from rolling a 20 twice in a row. The truth is you have better odds rolling a 1 in one of two rolls as you do of rolling a 15 or better twice in a row.

To display the odds, I will use a plot showing the cumulative probability of success. Well not quite, I believe I should flip it from right to left, but then the numbers are backwards. Since I don't do this professionally then such errors are commemorate with my pay scale. The left axis shows the odds of making the rolls you need, while the bottom shows the roll you need to make or beat. It is important to note that the odds are not that of making that precise role, but that roll or better.

An image may be worth a thousand words, but a chart is worth 10x magnification. This chart summarizes the data and adds a new data point, "like rolling." It equates the odds to what you would need to roll on a d20.0 (a special d20 that rolls to the tenths place). When the odds get really ridiculous, I replace it with a 20+x notation, where it is like rolling a 20 and then needing to roll x. As you can see from the data, the curse can be well worth it's cost in points, too bad the Epic version of the card is missing this spell.

Roll Normal Cursed Like
1 100.00% 100.00% 1.0
2 95.00% 90.25% 3.0
3 90.00% 81.00% 4.8
4 85.00% 72.25% 6.6
5 80.00% 64.00% 8.2
6 75.00% 56.25% 9.8
7 70.00% 49.00% 11.2
8 65.00% 42.25% 12.6
9 60.00% 36.00% 13.8
10 55.00% 30.25% 15.0
11 50.00% 25.00% 16.0
12 45.00% 20.25% 17.0
13 40.00% 16.00% 17.8
14 35.00% 12.25% 18.6
15 30.00% 9.00% 19.2
16 25.00% 6.25% 19.8
17 20.00% 4.00% 20 + 5
18 15.00% 2.25% 20 + 11
19 10.00% 1.00% 20 + 17
20 5.00% 0.25% 20 + 20